Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Valuation of externalities through neo-classical methods by including institutional variables

Externalities are uncompensated influences that are not expressed in a market but that affect the production possibilities or the welfare level of third parties. An example is the noise pollution in airport areas. Although air transport is an important source of economic growth and employment in many countries, the social and environmental problems connected with this sector are rising rapidly. Consequently, airports are becoming a matter of concern to many politicians. On what kind of values should they base their decisions as to further growth or consolidation of the current situation? In this paper we discuss two approaches, one based on mainstream, neo-classical, economics, and one based on institutional approaches, more in particular new institutional economics, which can be seen as a development complementary to the mainstream.     

基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测

本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时，相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响，从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发，考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实，本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时，对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况（如韦布尔分布），用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测，用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测     

汽车进气系统轰鸣声传递路径分析

为了消除进气系统带来的车内噪声问题,运用传递路径分析方法,“源-路径-响应”的分析思路,总结了进气系统噪声问题的传递路径,结合某轿车进气系统轰鸣声问题的改进,发现结构传递路径和空气传递路径对该进气轰鸣声均有重要贡献,通过降低空气滤清器安装点橡胶软垫的硬度和加强安装点车身侧支架,可有效降低车内轰鸣声。     

冲击荷载下CRTSⅡ型板式无砟轨道结构振动与噪声的关联性研究

为揭示冲击荷载作用下无砟轨道结构振动和噪声的内在关联性,采用1∶1足尺模型对CRTSⅡ型板式无砟轨道结构进行多组冲击振动试验。通过在板式无砟轨道不同方向、不同位置的锤击,获得钢轨轨顶、轨腰、轨底各个位置的加速度及声强声压数据,采用快速傅里叶变换(FFT)获得了振动和噪声的频谱图,并进行频域特性对比分析,研究振动和噪声的内在关联性。结果表明:侧向冲击荷载下,轨顶轨腰处声强主要与侧向振动有关,频谱图峰值对应良好;垂向冲击荷载下,0~1 500 Hz区段的声强主要受垂向振动影响。     

GM(1,1)-Logistic路基沉降组合预测模型研究与应用

路基沉降预测是指导正确施工及运营期路基养护的一个重要因素.GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型被广泛应用于路基最终沉降量的预测.基于组合预测的基本理论,结合GM(1,1)模型及Logistic模型的特点,提出了GM(1,1)-Logistic组合路基沉降预测模型,采用线性组合预测方法,以过去一段时间内组合预测误差平方和最小为原则来求2个预测模型的加权系数.结合工程实际监测数据的计算结果和分析表明,GM(1,1)-Logistic组合预测模型在预测精度上比单个模型具有更好的适用性.     

贵阳枢纽大对门双线隧道超前地质预报技术

针对贵阳枢纽白云至龙里北铁路控制性工程大对门双线隧道复杂的岩溶、水文地质等条件,介绍超前地质预报的综合应用,总结应用效果和存在的问题。超前地质预报实践表明,采用TSP、地质雷达、红外探水、HSP声波反射法等综合超前预报手段,有的放矢,结合地质资料和隧道开挖不断揭露的地质条件综合分析,可以获得较好的预报结果,为隧道中不良地质情况施工提供正确指导。     

超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降变形观测技术

结合厦深铁路(广东段)4标潮汕站场超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降控制施工及沉降变形观测施工实践,详细介绍了沉降变形观测技术,包括观测断面的选取及布置原则、测试内容、测试元器件的布设、沉降预测方法及预测计算、地基固结度的计算及分析,通过预测数据和实测数据的对比,证明了潮汕站场超大面积深厚软土桩网复合地基沉降控制施工方案的正确性,对指导同类型施工有借鉴作用。     

行星齿轮传动系中啮合相位关系

以前对行星齿轮传动机构的分析主要集中在各种制造和装配误差对齿轮系的影响，很少考虑相位差的影响因素。文中通过行星齿轮系简化模型，结合行星齿轮传动系的结构特点，详细说明了行星齿轮中啮合相位差的关系特性，建立了能适应于行星齿轮系分析模型的参数描述，并分析了直齿轮和斜齿轮的行星齿轮传动系相位关系及啮合刚度影响系数的异同。     

抑制制动器振动噪声的阻尼方法的探讨

针对在盘式制动器制动块底板上粘贴一层阻尼层(Insulating Shim)的阻尼处理方法，首先指出制动块底板上阻尼层的减振机制在于粘弹性材料在接触面间表现出的摩擦作用，尤其取决于材料本身的迟滞效应。然后．定量分析了阻尼层对制动器噪声的抑制效果；利用能量等效原理将接触摩擦转换成系统中粘性阻尼后进行特征分析．考察系统稳定性。